John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
With the ghosts and ghouls of Halloween safely put to bed, attention turns to other big, scary subjects with AI, energy policy, post-UK budget discussions, and US midterm elections coming into focus in the week ahead.
The Scottish Government is under increasing pressure to set out a clear position on both oil and gas and AI data centres. Ministers are balancing economic and environmental arguments, with pressure coming from community groups, opposition parties, their own backbenchers and even some of their own colleagues, both current and former.
In Westminster, MPs will continue to debate the first budget of the Burnham government this week before rising for recess on Wednesday, until 10 November. This week also brings another key moment in the fiscal calendar, with the Bank of England’s latest interest rate decision coming on Thursday.
US president Donald Trump has spent the weekend desperately trying to shore up support for Republican candidates in battleground states before Americans head to the polls on Tuesday. Not so long ago, his party had appeared certain to maintain control of the Senate in the midterms but, as the president’s own popularity ratings have dived so the race for the upper house has narrowed, with Democrats believing they have a real chance of success there, as well as in the House of Representatives.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games generated £233 million in economic activity across Scotland, including £158.6 million in the Glasgow region, according to a newly published impact assessment. Figures show around one million people attended the 11-day event, while the global television audience reached around 510 million people. The games, which cost about £160 million to host, supported 2,400 full-time equivalent years of employment, with 82 students securing temporary roles. The impact assessment also notes that community activities linked to the games reached every local authority in Scotland, with organisers saying the event demonstrated a more sustainable model for the Commonwealth Games going forward.
AI has been a key feature of business coverage over the weekend and will likely be a topic of debate among MSPs this week after innovation and technology minister Alyn Smith used a piece in The Herald to argue that Scotland must embrace the technology to realise its economic potential, warning that scepticism risks holding the country back. While his intervention has been criticised by some environmentalists and community campaigners, Scottish Financial Enterprise backed Smith, while urging the government to learn from countries with more advanced strategies. Meanwhile, The Herald also reported that MSPs have established a new cross-party group on AI and cyber security to examine the associated opportunities, risks and safeguards.
An exclusive piece in The Scotsman this morning highlights comments made by UK reindustrialisation minister, Blair McDougall that the removal of hazardous chemicals and remediation of land at the former Grangemouth refinery are delaying the deployment of £200m in promised National Wealth Fund investment. According to McDougall, following a taskforce meeting involving UK and Scottish governments, efforts are underway to accelerate the process and attract jobs and investment. In addition to the closure of the refinery last year, chemicals manufacturer Syngenta has set out plans to end operations by the end of 2027, putting a further 377 jobs at risk. McDougall said discussions were ongoing in relation to workforce support and alternative investment.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
The SNP’s position on oil and gas is expected to receive further scrutiny this week after former deputy first minister Kate Forbes urged the Scottish Government to back the Rosebank oilfield. In her column for The Times, Forbes argued that backing the project would be entirely in line with SNP policy, following the resolution passed by party members at last month’s SNP conference in Aberdeen. Other reports have suggested UK energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh is increasingly isolated within government given her opposition to the project, with the prime minister and chancellor apparently keen to see the project go ahead.
In a piece for The Scotsman, Fraser Dobbie, CFO of North Star, argues that the cost of offshore wind could be reduced by changing how the industry finances its supporting infrastructure. Dobbie says combining ownership of expensive specialist vessels with higher-risk project operations leads to increased borrowing costs, which are ultimately passed through the supply chain and reflected in auction prices. He argues that separating long-term infrastructure assets from operational businesses could attract investment, following similar models used elsewhere in the energy sector, but stresses that investors also need long-term policy certainty.
Writing for the Guardian, political historian Rory Scothorne argues that Andy Burnham’s growing popularity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the SNP. Scothorne acknowledges that Burnham’s emphasis on regional empowerment, reindustrialisation and rebuilding public services could appeal to voters who might otherwise support independence. However, he argues his ambition to restore closer UK relations with Europe could also benefit Scottish nationalists. He suggests renewed UK-EU cooperation could help preserve an economic route towards Scottish independence, even if Burnham becomes an increasing electoral threat in the short to medium term.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A survey conducted by School Leaders’ Scotland has highlighted the impact of secondary teacher shortages on pupils, with nearly two-thirds of schools reporting current vacancies. A lack of qualified applicants, difficulties recruiting specialist staff in rural and island communities, and issues related to workload and the pressures of teaching were identified as key concerns.
The data also showed that shortages are increasingly affecting curriculum provision, with almost two-thirds of schools reducing teaching in particular subjects and more than two-fifths offering a narrower range of subjects overall. Some schools are also relying on teachers to deliver classes outside their areas of specialism, with instances of science teachers covering maths lessons.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
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House of Commons
- Defence: Scottish Labour MP Graeme Downie to bring forward a Ten Minute Rule Motion, calling on the government to prepare and publish a strategy for recycling decommissioned submarines
- Housing questions
- MPs continue budget deliberations
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Local government: Labour to set out its approach to future power sharing arrangements with the Greens at a local authority level, following the recent ‘Zionism is racism’ row. Labour’s decision will have ramifications for the SNP in Scotland, given the party’s reliance on the Scottish Greens to pass legislation, including the upcoming budget
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European security: Defence secretary Wes Streeting heads to Berlin for discussions with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius
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Reform UK: Danny Kruger delivers a Policy Exchange keynote address on his party’s preparations for government, should it win a future general election
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Speech: Former chancellor Rachel Reeves addresses Harvard Kennedy School on “radicalism in an age of populism”
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Energy: Major energy sector exhibition and conference, Adipec, opens in Abu Dhabi
Tuesday
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Holyrood:
- FMQs (backbench members)
- Ministerial statements on Supporting Victims of Domestic Abuse and council tax debt
- Scottish Government debate on youth employment
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House of Commons
- Treasury questions
- Final stages of the budget debate
- Heads of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation to appear before the Treasury Select Committee
- Lebanese and Turkish ambassadors to give evidence at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee meeting on Syria
- Election: Americans head to the polls for the US midterm elections, with results expected from 11pm UK time
- Diplomacy: King Charles delivers an address at the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Saint John’s, Antigua and Barbuda
Wednesday
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House of Commons:
- PMQs
- Health Secretary Yvette Cooper appears before the Health and Social Care Select Committee
- Education Secretary Lucy Powell faces scrutiny from the Education Committee
- Office for Budget Responsibility Chair Jonathan Haskel to attend the Treasury Select Committee, discussing the budget
- House rises for recess until 10 November
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Holyrood:
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Reform UK to lead debates on the economy and justice
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- Palestine: The Supreme Court begins a two-day hearing examining the proscription of Palestine Action
- Sweden: Nordic Compass Summit begins in Gothenburg, bringing together business and political leaders from across the region
Thursday
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Holyrood:
- FMQs (party leaders)
- Ministerial statement on safeguarding and protecting children
- Scottish Government debate on the bus network
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Finance: The Bank of England announces its latest interest rate decision
- Defence: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and MP Danny Kruger unveil the party’s armed forces spokesperson at a London press conference.
- Protest: France braces for a general strike
- Fireworks: Guy Fawkes Night
Friday
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Rugby: Northern vs southern hemisphere World Rugby Nations Championship continues
Saturday
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Election: New Zealand goes to the polls for its general election
Sunday
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Commemoration: Remembrance Sunday is marked by the annual service at the Cenotaph
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India: Diwali celebrations take place