John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Yesterday, a select sub-group of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) made a decision to squash – at least for the time being – a potentially disruptive force in the parliamentary party. The move to prevent Manchester’s metro mayor, Andy Burnham, from running in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election is either a show of strength, a cynical stitch-up, or simple common sense. Whatever your perspective, Burnham’s dreams of a return to Westminster remain on hold, for now.
The decision received a mixed response from senior Scottish Labour figures, with East Kilbride and Strathaven MP, Joani Reid, describing the whole affair as an “energy-sapping distraction”, adding that she would have preferred Burnham to “stay out of it”. Meanwhile, North Ayrshire and Arran MP, Irene Campbell, described the decision to block his tilt at a Westminster seat as “massively disappointing”. Brian Leishman, the MP for Alloa and Grangemouth, responded in typically rebellious fashion, saying the move was “as undemocratic as it is cowardly”.
Scotland could be set for some international attention this week as politicians, diplomats and industry leaders gather in Hamburg for the international North Sea Summit. Discussions are set to focus on promoting greater cross-border collaboration on expanding offshore wind energy and hydrogen infrastructure, with Scotland positioned to play a key role in advancing these ambitions. Cooperation on offshore wind has emerged as a rare area of deepening UK–EU partnership since Brexit, with the UK’s ambassador to Germany, Andrew Mitchell, advocating for better coordination on infrastructure, planning and industrial strategy to enable the region to become a self-sufficient green power hub.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
Calls for a Culture Act for Scotland featured on the front page of Sunday’s edition of The Herald, with more than 70 famous figures from across the creative industries signing an open letter to party leaders and culture spokespeople, arguing for new legislation to safeguard the sector, maximise its impact and widen access to the arts. Culture Counts, the industry body leading the campaign, has said that an Act in the next parliament could unlock “untapped potential” within the £5.7 billion industry, enabling the arts to play a transformative role across a range of policy areas and in all aspects of public life.
Daily Business has highlighted new figures from Adzuna this morning, showing that Scotland recorded the steepest monthly fall in advertised jobs in December, with vacancies down more than eight per cent, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The piece also notes that competition for roles across the UK remains intense, with 2.3 jobseekers per vacancy. The data shows vacancies fell to their lowest annual level since 2020, driven by factors including high inflation, economic uncertainty and growing use of AI. Adzuna data also shows that employers are cutting back on remote roles, though hybrid jobs continue to rise. Despite weak hiring, pay growth remains strong, with average UK salaries rising by 6.77% annually, and Scotland seeing an 8.63% increase.
Ahead of today’s North Sea summit in Hamburg, The Scotsman has published a piece asking what closer collaboration with Europe on offshore wind means for Chinese involvement in the sector. Rachel Amery’s piece notes that energy secretary Ed Miliband is set to sign the Hamburg Declaration at the summit today, committing to deeper cooperation with European allies on offshore wind to boost energy security and sovereignty. The agreement includes cooperation on subsea infrastructure and cybersecurity. However, with Europe becoming increasingly concerned about Chinese involvement in the energy sector and geopolitical tensions continuing to intensify, the move could have direct consequences for Ming Yang’s presence in Scotland, bringing its plans for a £1.5bn turbine factory in Scotland into question again.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
In The Times, Tom Calver takes a deep dive into the structure of the UK civil service, asking the question, how difficult is it to be sacked from a job within the machinery of government? His analysis shows it’s extremely rare for civil servants to get their jotters. Despite widespread criticism that Whitehall is oversized and underperforming, only 0.76 per cent of more than 310,000 civil servants were dismissed or made redundant in 2024–25, and even fewer for poor performance. The chief secretary to the prime minister, Darren Jones, has set out plans to rank top civil servants against performance indicators set by ministers, with those found to be “underdelivering” being held to account.
Writing for The Herald, Dani Garavelli argues that Anas Sarwar could win over “indy-lite” voters like her if he can clearly distance himself from the UK Labour leadership, and offer a credible vision for change in Scotland. She says that while the SNP is seen as tired and ineffective, Labour is losing momentum, squeezed by Reform and Keir Starmer’s unpopularity. Garavelli welcomes Sarwar’s willingness to challenge the prime minister on elements of foreign policy, child poverty and the need to be a real alternative to Reform UK but questions how much further he can go – in terms of setting out a different political offering – while his party is still tied to UK Labour. To earn her vote, Garavelli says that Sarwar must build a distinct Scottish Labour identity, matching criticism of the SNP with realistic, deliverable policies.
In a piece for the Guardian, the director of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass, Neal Lawson, argues Labour must reverse its decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, warning the move signals an intolerance of internal dissent. He says effective government depends on collaboration, not unquestioning loyalty to leadership. Lawson argues that Burnham’s Greater Manchester mayoralty shows how consensual, place-based politics can deliver growth and meaningful progress. He believes that allowing Burnham to stand would energise members, strengthen moderate politics and help counter Reform UK.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A new report from the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit has compared poverty rates in Scotland with the rest of the UK. It notes that Scotland has generally had lower poverty rates since the early 2000s, largely due to cheaper housing costs. This gap widened until the early 2010s, then narrowed as poverty rose in Scotland while remaining relatively flat in other parts of the UK. Recent data suggests that we could be seeing a new phase of divergence, with government policies such as the Scottish Child Payment having a material impact on household income. However, the Fraser of Allander Institute has warned that the government’s strong focus on addressing child poverty, while entirely justified, could result in other vulnerable groups being left behind.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
- Energy: International North Sea Summit to be held in Hamburg, with a focus on cross-border cooperation to support energy security. The gathering will be addressed by chancellor Friedrich Merz.
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Westminster:
- MPs debate the Armed Forces Bill at second reading
- Home secretary to publish the government’s policing white paper
- DWP ministers take questions in the chamber
- Darren Jones and security minister Dan Jarvis to appear before the National Security Committee
- Media: 100th anniversary of the birth of John Logie Baird
Tuesday
- Holocaust Memorial Day
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Holyrood
- MSPs debate the Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill at stage three
- Shona Robison to appear before the Finance Committee, discussing the government’s budget
- Energy sector bosses including Scottish Renewables chief executive Claire Mack to appear before the Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee, discussing the draft climate change plan
- MSPs on the Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee to discuss the Visitor Levy (Amendment) (Scotland) Bill, taking evidence from senior council officers, and representatives from the tourism and hospitality sectors
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Westminster:
- Treasury questions
- Defence secretary John Healey to appear before the Defence Select Committee
- Shetland: Annual ‘Up Helly Aa’ celebrations take place, including a torchlit procession and burning of a replica Viking longship
Wednesday
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Westminster:
- PMQs
- Women and equalities questions
- Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds to appear before the public administration committee, discussing UK-EU relations
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Holyrood:
- Culture secretary Angus Robertson and justice secretary Angela Constance to take questions from MSPs in the chamber
- Scottish Labour to lead a debate on health policy
- MSPs to debate a legislative consent motion on the UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill
- Mairi Gougeon to appear before the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee, alongside senior stakeholders, to give evidence on the draft Climate Change Plan
- Church of England: Dame Sarah Mullally legally becomes the 106th Archbishop of Canterbury
Thursday
- China: Keir Starmer arrived in Beijing for a three-day visit
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Holyrood:
- FMQs
- Alexander Burnett to lead a debate in the chamber, calling for a fair share of funding for public services
- Education questions in the chamber
- MSPs to debate the Restraint and Seclusion in Schools (Scotland) Bill and the Greyhound Racing (Offences) (Scotland) Bill, both at stage one
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Westminster:
- MPs question business and trade ministers in the chamber
Friday
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Westminster:
- Peers debate the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill
- US: Deadline for passage of new funding bill to prevent a federal government shutdown
Saturday
- Tennis: final game of the women’s singles contest at the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Tax: HMRC self assessment online tax return deadline
Sunday
- Costa Rica: presidential and parliamentary elections
- Australian Open men’s final