Milly Hean, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
Businesses face a double whammy of increased costs this week as the rise in business rates (technically non-domestic rates) valuations comes into effect on 1 April. While there is rates relief for some sectors, many Scottish businesses are staring at double digit rises which could be the difference between profit and loss in the coming 12 months. Also coming into effect on April Fools’ Day is an increase in the National Minimum Wage. For workers aged 21 and over, the rate will rise to £12.71 per hour.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Parliament is now in recess and the starting pistol on the Holyrood election has properly begun. This, coupled with the extra hour of daylight, should mean a big increase in doorstep canvassing, so expect that bell to ring.
The one party tipped to shake up Holyrood has not had its troubles to seek, however. Reform UK Scotland announced a fifth candidate was stepping back. James Glen, who had been selected to stand in Edinburgh North Western, withdrew his candidacy in solidarity with partner Linda Holt, whose own departure last week followed a backlash over comments about former first minister Humza Yousaf.
The disarray raises questions around Malcolm Offord’s management. Scottish secretary Douglas Alexander described the development as “humiliating” and said the party – who are projected to be neck-in-neck with Scottish Labour behind the SNP – are “not serious contenders for power”.
At Westminster, MPs and Lords remain on Easter recess until April 13. For ministers, however, there is no such respite. The conflict in the Middle East enters its second month, while the government is aware a domestic impact is beginning to be felt. A quarterly UK GDP estimate, US jobs data and Eurozone provisional inflation figures set to be released this week will paint a clearer picture of how the war, and particularly the surge in energy prices, is beginning to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook.
Away from politics, director-general Tim Davie will officially clock out of the BBC this week after announcing his departure in November 2025. This followed controversy around the editing of a BBC Panorama episode which featured Donald Trump. He is expected to take on the position as co-chair of the Creative Industries Council later this year.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
During a visit to Aberdeen today, the Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, will insist that more drilling for North Sea oil and gas and cuts to the windfall tax are needed to lower energy bills. However, industry experts including the chair of GB Energy, Juergen Maier, have argued that domestic oil would still be sold at prices dictated by international markets, and would not automatically result in lower bills. John Swinney will also spend today in the North East leading the “It’s Scotland’s Energy” campaign, which demands energy powers to be devolved in an independent Scotland to cut electricity bills.
Scottish Labour has pledged to fix the “broken system” of west coast ferries by merging CalMac and the ferry procurement body Caledonian Maritime Assets Limited (CMAL). Anas Sarwar said a Labour government in Holyrood would upgrade the ferry fleet as the number of CalMac cancellations more than doubled between 2015 and 2025, from 6,822 to 13,647 annually.
Ryanair launched two new services from Glasgow Airport to London Stansted and Warsaw. This forms part of the airline’s expanded Glasgow programme for Summer 2026, which will offer more than 100 flights to eight destinations each week. In particular, the twice-daily Stansted route boosts Glasgow’s connectivity to London for business and leisure travellers.
Also in the world of aviation, rising fuel prices due to the US-Israel war with Iran has sharpened Loganair’s focus on electric aircraft. The airline’s chief executive, Luke Farajallah, shared that Loganair is working with US electric aerospace expert Beta Technologies on developing a battery-powered plane. In the future, electric aircraft could operate “short hop” flights for passengers and freight to destinations around the Orkney Islands.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Despite a backdrop of dire poll ratings, the cost-of-living crisis and looming local election losses, Oliver Wright, Steven Swinford and Patrick Maguire of The Sunday Times (£) delve into the reasons why Keir Starmer may be cautiously optimistic about survival. His handling of the Iran conflict and a tactical decision to schedule the next King’s Speech on 13 May (to prorogue parliament when a leadership challenge could have been triggered) will buoy him in the short term. The bigger threat may now be faced in the autumn, when rising bills and potential fuel shortages are expected to sap any remaining political goodwill and Andy Burnham is better placed to enter Westminster.
The UK’s free museum model is a national treasure under threat from growing funding pressures. Writing in The Guardian, Karin Hindsbo argues that while exploring new funding models is necessary, charging tourists for entry would be a serious mistake. This would deter international visitors, reduce donations from artists, collectors and philanthropists, and the resulting loss of income from exclusive exhibition tickets, shops and cafés would likely outweigh any gains from admission charges. Free entry, Hindsbo concludes, is what keeps UK museums the envy of the world – drawing the largest and most diverse audiences to engage with culture.
In an age of “radical uncertainty”, what meaning does the Bank of England’s 2 per cent consumer price index (CPI) target still hold? Damien Pudner of The Spectator(£) writes that inflation targets are unhelpful when tackling stagflation and puts forward the case for nominal GDP targeting to keep market demand on a stable course.
Shifting the dial - recent research
Last year, the Scottish Parliament passed a law removing Scotland’s unique third criminal trial verdict: “not proven”. This means trials can now end in one of two verdicts: “guilty” and “not guilty”, in line with England and Wales. According to a YouGov poll, most Scots prefer the new two-verdict system to the historic three-verdict system, by 54% to 33%.
Responses highlight a political divide in sentiment towards the abolished “bastard verdict”, as Sir Walter Scott described it, with 68% of Scottish Conservative voters in 2024 in favour of the change, compared to just 51% of 2024 SNP voters.
Unusually, it is younger Scots who fell on the side of tradition, with around half of Scots under 50 preferring the new system compared to around 60% of Scots over 50.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
-
Holyrood
- In recess until 8 April, then dissolution begins on 9 April
-
Westminster
- In recess until 13 April
-
Consulting Scotland
- Consultation on water services: investing in and paying from 2027 closes
- National Education Union holds annual conference in Brighton
- Reform UK rally held in Hull
- Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour launch Senedd election campaigns
- Financial Conduct Authority sets out approach on motor finance redress scheme
- G7 finance and energy ministers meet to discuss Iran conflict
- Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visits Berlin ahead of expected stop in London this week.
Tuesday
-
Scottish Government Data
- Council Tax Assumptions, 2026-27
- Housing Statistics for Scotland quarterly update
- Reports: UK GDP quarterly national accounts; Eurozone inflation updates;
- UK-France funding agreement on beach patrols expires
- French Senate debates social media ban for under-15s
- 2026 FIFA World Cup playoffs finals
Wednesday
- Changes to business rates take affect
- National Minimum Wage increases
- Water bills to rise by average of 5.4% in England and Wales, 8.7% Scotland
- Energy price cap changes take effect
- Reports: British Retail Consortium shop price monitor
- Apple’s 50th anniversary
- April Fools' Day
- Passover begins
Thursday
- Virgin Money and Nationwide merger completes
- Tesla car delivery figures expected
Friday
- Good Friday
Saturday
- 30-day waiver on Indian purchases of Russian oil expires
- Oxford v Cambridge boat race
- Riz Ahmed hosts SNL UK
Sunday
- Easter Sunday
- New Archbishop of Canterbury Sarah Mullally delivers Easter Sunday sermon
- Eight OPEC+ nations meet