Trump and Xi met in Beijing on Wednesday for the first US presidential visit to China in nearly nine years. China-watchers have been out in force with analyses and predictions. There has been no shortage of opinion.
Who holds the upper hand in this meeting is debatable. Several analysts describe the US as coming into this meeting weakened, most clearly with the Iran war dragging on. Equally, others see Xi as emboldened. Either way, both leaders face issues well beyond the formal setting of Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, from their economies through to the Strait of Hormuz and Taiwan, as well as technology competition, and US midterms.
One idea that has been floated by Trump before is a G2: the world's two superpowers deciding global affairs between themselves, with middle powers (the UK included) around the edges. But this summit may return to more familiar ground for Trump. He arrived with a senior CEO delegation in tow, posting on Truth Social that his “very first request” would be for Xi to “open up” China. This aim has been tried many times before and the baseline for success is low. Foreign direct investment into China has been in decline since well before Covid, hitting its lowest level since 1991 last year
Domestically, China has been restrained in its commentary for the meeting. The official announcement of Trump’s state visit was only announced on Monday, compared with nine years ago when the Foreign Affairs Ministry hosted media briefings before Trump’s arrival. Official commentary has also been limited, with the People's Daily carrying an article under a pen name on 13 May titled ‘US-China Relations Cannot Return to the Past But Can Have a Better Future’. Xinhua, China’s official news agency, also published a piece titled ‘Finding the Right Way for China and the US as Major Powers to Get Along’.
Chinese state media noted today that Xi’s meeting with Trump lasted over two hours and fifteen minutes. We wait to see what gets agreed and in what form. Any deal, particularly involving bilateral trade and investment, will face entrenched US scepticism towards Chinese investment, most clearly in Congress where the upcoming midterms loom large in the political calendar and calculations. Whatever is announced, this summit could be the high point of US - China relations for the next few years, or as Trump said today: “better than ever before”.