The May local elections delivered one of the clearest signals yet of a shifting political landscape across the UK.
In this analysis, we set out the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ for each of the five main parties – Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK – and what their results reveal about the direction of British politics.
Labour:
- Councillors: -1496
- Councils: -38
- National share: 17%
This was as bad as most people predicted for Labour. Before the elections, most were predicting a seat loss of 1,500 and that is precisely where it ended up. The problem for Labour is that it is losing to both Reform UK and Greens at the same time, making it difficult to see what policy change direction they can pursue to stem the tide.
The Good: They did better in London than some punters predicted. They lost seats, many of them, but they managed to hold onto some key councils, including Merton, Camden and Islington. It’s clear that a large pool of volunteers helped steady the ship in some locations where Labour were fearful of historic losses. This does not take away from these elections being their worst London performance for a number of years (decades), but it could have been a lot worse!
The not so good: Labour’s complete meltdown in its Northern heartlands is potentially fatal for their chances of being re-elected at the next general election. They have lost councils like Wakefield and Sunderland which they’ve held since their creation, and not by small margins either!
Conservative:
- Councillors: -587
- Councils: -6
- National share: 17%
The Conservatives went into this election with fairly realistic expectations. The goal was simple – to win back Westminster City Council at all costs. The problem for them was the deferred county elections, which, ironically, the Conservative Party had nationally campaigned to overturn. If they had been postponed as initially planned, the election night net losses could have been halved and the narrative for Kemi would have been very different.
The Good: London’s locals were better than expected for the Conservatives. In the end, they comfortably won Westminster and almost won in Wandsworth (which they will probably run) and were one seat short in Barnet and Enfield (a council they haven’t run since 2010!). They also successfully saw off Reform UK in all the councils they were defending in Greater London.
The Bad: The deferred county elections were never going to be great for the Tories. They were all last fought in 2021 during the Vaccine Boris Bump, and before the advent of Reform. As predicted, the Conservatives were heavily defeated, losing control of all of their former counties to either Reform or the Lib Dems.
Liberal Democrats:
- Councillors: +155
- Councils: +1
- National share: 16%
For a party that has traditionally thrived when a government hits a rough patch, the mood amongst activists was one of genuine concern that they could be squeezed out by Reform and the Greens. It might explain why they focused heavily (especially in London) in consolidating their existing councils. In the end, their base was secure – but their position as the natural party of protest might be gone.
The Good: Winning the two new shadow authorities in Surrey was a huge boost. At one point in the campaign it sounded like both could go no overall control. But these two wins will calm some nerves within the Lib Dems that they still “winning here”.
The Bad: Not sure why Ed Davey claimed so strongly that Merton was going to be a yellow victory. In the end, Labour held onto its control there with an increased majority. This slight embarrassment did typify a lack of progress in the capital and a general feeling that the Greens and Reform are replacing them as the party of protest – not a great sign when you are defending 73 parliamentary seats!
Green:
- Councillors: +441
- Councils: +5
- National share: 18%
The Good: Wins in Hackney and Lewisham were definitely the highlight of their campaign. But outside of London too, they gained in Norwich and Hastings and won half the seats up for grabs in Manchester.
The Bad: The Greens did make significant gains outside of London, but nowhere near the scale of their wins in the capital city. In Birmingham, they were pipped to the post of being the largest party by Reform, and their gains more generally were more modest. There is a danger for the Green Party that they become an urban metro party only, and whilst that will bring success, it will limit their ability to be the natural replacement of Labour if they are not more competitive outside of their urban core.
Reform:
- Councillors: +1451
- Councils: +14
- National share: 26%
Reform entered the election with high hopes, and they certainly did not disappoint. There will be some pundits that will point to wild predictions by the party that they would win 2,500 seats across the country. Personally, I think that this was an intentional part of their spiel to maximise their vote on a “winning everywhere” strategy.
The Good: Their dismantling of Labour’s ‘red wall’ is impressive. There were councils like Wigan and Hartlepool where they won every seat on offer, despite Wigan being a Labour heartland. This feels like a major realignment of political loyalties in the North and you are hard pressed to see how Labour can stop the tide.
The Bad: Let’s talk about London. Reform talked up a big game in the capital, and many pundits (and even pollsters) backed them to do well. There was talk of an outer ring of Reform councils, but in the end, they won just one – the one that was previously run by a resident’s group and identifies heavily with Essex. Reform UK definitely has a London problem. Not a good start for their Mayoral hopeful, Laila Cunningham, who will contesting Labour titan, Sir Sadiq Khan, in 2028.
by Mark Hawthorne, Director of JBP Local
For more on the local election outcomes, as well as the key takeaways from the King’s Speech and what the next twelve months at Westminster, Holyrood and Cardiff Bay could mean for businesses, organisations and wider stakeholders, check out our latest webinar here: From Ballot box to King’s speech – the week that defined our politics