With Labour having been comparatively quiet over the course of the past week, the Conservatives have found themselves in the spotlight on a range of issues. The start of the week saw Cameron expanding on the last of his six election themes – namely housing - with a pledge to deliver 200,000 ‘starter-homes’ by 2020. These will be made available to first-time buyers under-40 at a discount of up to 20% off market price. The pledge is a doubling of existing plans to deliver 100,000 starter-homes and has proved controversial by waiving S.106 agreements – which ensure the provision of affordable housing within the local area. Given the Conservatives’ recent focus on the ‘grey’ vote – exemplified through an expansion of pensioner bonds – Cameron’s housing announcement is a shift away from this and a clear attempt to target younger, aspirational voters.
Somewhat predictably, given UKIP’s ongoing success in the polls, immigration is the issue that simply will not go away. UKIP themselves had to deal with a spot of bother at the launch of their immigration policy, in which the party’s commitment to an immigration cap was dropped, in favour of a points-based system. Given the party’s previous commitment to a cap, accusations of making up policy ‘on-the-hoof’ abounded. However, once again focus turned to the Conservatives, where reports of splits in the party over immigration were laid bare. Reports that Cameron has been urged to scrap immigration targets – deemed to be unrealistic – by senior colleagues highlight the potential for a split on immigration to become a growing challenge for the party – both prior to the election and post-May.
Similar to immigration, the ongoing saga of whether we will have TV debates in the lead-up to the election continues. Cameron’s team has set out the Prime Minister’s terms – a single debate prior to the start of the short election campaign (beginning 30th March). We now await a response from the broadcasters. Without wishing to rehash the merits or otherwise of TV debates, there is a growing threat that the PM’s apparent refusal to participate risking drowning out the other campaign messages Conservative strategists will want to drive home between now and May.
The concerns of those party strategists – and indeed strategists from the other major parties – will have been compounded by Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling. The polling, which includes a focus on key marginal constituencies, suggest that Labour and the Conservatives could end up literally neck-and-neck in terms of seats – achieving 272 each. Of particular concern to Labour is the stubborn refusal of SNP support to decline - Ashcroft’s analysis suggests swings to the Nationalists could cause problems for key Scottish Labour figures including current leader, Jim Murphy, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former Chancellor Alistair Darling. Labour’s Scottish problem shows few signs of dissipating.
More generally, a scenario in which both the major parties win 272 seats – substantially short of an overall majority (let alone a workable majority) – reaffirms the potential for protracted negotiations between a range of parties in the immediate aftermath of the election. If a reminder were needed as to the possible uncertainty following the election, Ashcroft has provided it.