Reform UK is on course to emerge as the defining force of the 2026 local elections.
After winning 677 seats (41% of those contested) and taking control of 10 councils last year, current projections suggest the party could go significantly further on 7 May, potentially securing more than 1,300 seats and establishing itself as the biggest winner of the cycle. Far from plateauing, Reform is on track to significantly expand its vote share.
This surge comes against a backdrop of historic decline for both main parties. The Labour Party is projected to lose well over 1,500 councillors, potentially approaching 2,000, while the Conservative Party faces further substantial losses. In this context, Reform is not just gaining ground; it is capitalising on a fragmented political landscape, concerns about the cost of living, and dissatisfaction with the national political situation.
In our latest edition of Inside Reform, we examine where those gains are most likely to materialise and what they mean across England, Scotland and Wales. We map the key battlegrounds, identifying where Reform is best placed to convert momentum into additional local authority heft.
We also explore “the Reform factor” in the capital. Polling at around 17%, the party is now a genuine electoral force in London, with a highly targeted strategy focused on the outer boroughs of Havering, Bexley and Bromley. Even where Reform does not win outright control, its vote share could prove decisive, splitting the right and increasing the likelihood of No Overall Control councils.
For all this and more, we invite you to download the fourth edition of Inside Reform now. If you’d like to discuss the findings in more detail or arrange a tailored briefing for your team, don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Nick Dines, Managing Director
Click here to watch our video analysis.
