Gorton and Denton: the beginning of the end for Starmer?
On Thursday 26 February, for the first time in a parliamentary by-election in England, neither Labour nor the Conservatives were placed first or second. The emphatic win by newly elected Hannah Spencer MP – securing over 40% of the vote – saw voters for the first time trusting the Green Party over Labour as populist challengers on the left, as being best placed to beat populists on the right, Reform UK.
This was not a by-election which suffered from a particularly low turnout, as can often be the case. But younger, urban voters disillusioned by Labour’s cautious stance on climate, Gaza and welfare lent towards the Greens; whilst older, blue-collar voters concerned with immigration felt comfortable backing Reform. Labour’s natural coalition of voters – combined with a disillusioned core – in effect collapsed, and its overall vote decreased by 25%.
In fact, Gorton and Denton did for Labour in February 2026 what the general election in 2024 did for the Conservatives. Tired incumbents perceived as failing to deliver (in Labour’s case, after only 18 months) with messaging too stretched across multiple demographics to feel credible. A highly transactional, polarised electorate prioritising blocking parties and policies it doesn’t like, more than backing those it does.
But with both Labour and the Conservatives struggling, and the rise of the “minor” parties, it’s possible a new level of fragmentation has now emerged. Winning vote shares are reducing, with the need for party organisation on the ground significantly increasing. Much greater volatility in local voting intention is present, especially compared to national trend analysis. And community-based coalitions and the back-story of candidates could well become more persuasive than national manifesto promises.
So where does this leave Labour and Keir Starmer’s premiership?
Together they are navigating their most precarious period since coming into office. A succession of scandals, resignations and “re-set” moments in Downing Street, an over-reliance on “managerialism”, multiple u-turns and a lack of domestic policy delivery have combined to cast a lasting doubt on the Prime Minister’s judgment. Meanwhile “stabilised” public finances contrast with record levels of taxation, and lower inflation contrasting with lack of interest rate cuts combine to make little positive difference to the pound in people’s pockets. The rise of Reform and the Greens is an existential threat to Labour itself.
Yet for now, circumstances contrive a kind of “unstable stability”. Most obviously in light of this week’s airstrikes on Iran. A clash between the chaos loving strongman Donald and the procedure driven lawyer Keir was always on the cards, but for now the Prime Minister has drawn the line at what he implies is illegal action on the part of the US. The traditionally disgruntled left has been vocal in its support for Starmer’s position. Labour MPs have been forced to consider if a rival would handle the crisis better. And a leadership challenge right now amongst mounting global crisis could so very easily backfire.
Even before Iran, arguably the prospect of a putsch in Downing Street was over-stated. Labour MPs generally could only agree in numbers on who they’d prevent succeeding Starmer. With Andy Burnham blocked from entering the Commons (for now), Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are the two realistic challengers, but neither has enough support to guarantee a swift contest and clear win. Crucially, neither wants to openly attack the Prime Minister. And nowhere in Labour is there any realistic alternative plan to grow the economy faster. There is no obvious alternative cabinet, and with so many new Labour MPs on the backbenches, most loyalties haven’t yet been formally tested.
To regain momentum, the government is pursuing several high-stakes policy shifts. The upcoming removal of the two-child benefit cap in April 2026 aims to address criticism from the left, while clampdowns on asylum rules are aimed at supporters leaving for Reform. Falling debt interest and rising real terms household income highlighted in the Spring statement, the Chancellor argues are proof that “Labour’s plan is working”, with borrowing forecast to fall by around £18 billion over the forecast period. The Representation of the People Bill, lowering the voting age to 16, and the introduction of automatic voter registration, both seek to bolster Labour’s future electoral base.
Starmer’s team are adamant he will not resign and will see out his full term and fight the next election, but privately some have started to accept that if the polls don't change, then for the good of the Labour party and the country, there may be a time when a new leader is needed. The potential scale of losses in May’s local elections could change the willingness of Labour MPs to continue to wait for green shoots of economic recovery, and most accept that protracted conflict in the Middle East could kill off any good news from the OBR. An immediate putsch may be off the cards. But all the signs are that calls for some form of “orderly transition” in Downing Street could soon become deafening.
What does this mean for business?
- As the traditional main parties struggle, the "minor" parties capitalise on voter frustration, the electoral landscape is becoming more fragmented, volatile and unpredictable.
- Global tensions are now back in party politics - convenient excuses for domestic politicians to blame but carrying high risk for short term economic prosperity.
- Multiple scenario planning is critical, as is investing in relationships across the parties and amongst those insulated from party politics, e.g. senior civil servants.
If you would like to get in touch with the team, please contact Head of Public Affairs, James Marshall, at james.marshall@mhpgroup.com