As the war in the Middle East and resulting economic shocks crystallise a new period of geopolitical volatility, one reality is becoming clearer: access to space can’t be taken for granted.
Space might not immediately come to mind amid these crises. However, space technology has been critical for intelligence gathering and, apart from the immediate conflict, many countries are confronting broader escalating vulnerabilities tied to national security and economic resilience that are making greater access to space a strategic necessity.
This is particularly true with the UK’s and Europe’s infrastructure hugely dependent on satellites launched into orbit. Today, 18% of the UK’s GDP depends on satellite services supporting secure communications networks, navigation systems, defence monitoring and environmental tracking – infrastructure that supports everyday life.
With countries like Russia finding new ways to disrupt and manipulate these technologies, and with the increasing risks of supply chain dependence, there are mounting arguments for the UK to obtain greater access and control of the satellite systems it depends on.
There’s a considerable economic argument too, particularly for Scotland as the primary location for the first domestic rocket launches. It’s positioned to capture an estimated £4 billion share of the global space market and to capitalise on already established strengths to offer a full space value chain – from satellite manufacturing through to data processing. The missing piece is the capability of launching small satellites directly from our own soil.
This is the backdrop against which the UK’s fast-developing space sector is operating. Yet the direct link to the bigger strategic picture is not always being clearly made, as narratives of risk linked to recent setbacks have overshadowed why that risk is necessary in the first place.
The collapse of rocket developer Orbex in February, recent financial losses at SaxaVord Spaceport in Shetland, and a series of timeline delays have raised questions over what the sector’s future in Scotland looks like.
What’s less clearly articulated is that setbacks like these are inherently part of the process of getting a complex industry off the ground (no pun intended). They aren’t a reason to pull back but rather to make a stronger strategic case for why the country needs to stay the course through them.
The US space programme has absorbed decades of setbacks, and private companies like SpaceX have repeatedly watched unmanned rockets explode on the launchpad in full view, only to return to the launchpad again and again.
Headline-making setbacks need to be taken alongside the ones demonstrating good progress. Test launches from SaxaVord are planned in the coming months by one rocket company, and a second – with longer-term ambitions for human spaceflight – has recently signed an agreement for its own suborbital launches from the spaceport, following successful tests in Australia.
Scotland is also playing host to international collaboration for this capital-intensive sector. Last month, a coalition of diplomats and industry representatives from 20 countries met in Edinburgh to identify shared priorities, illustrating Scotland’s status as a facilitator of new opportunities for sector growth.
That wider international interest reflects a broader reality. Serious space nations understand the rewards despite the risks. And there are plenty of middle powers on the move who are reading the moment – particularly as the reliability of the US alliance is called into further question. Canada has just committed hundreds of millions of dollars in funding for eventual sovereign launch capability in Nova Scotia. Germany and France are also prioritising the sector by putting billions of euros into defence-linked space capacity, just in the past few months.
Setbacks can be managed. The UK is attempting something genuinely difficult at a moment that also underlines its importance. But there remains a gap in explaining the direct link between the strategic case and the capital needed to deliver it, so that every delay or failed test doesn’t reinforce doubt in the overall project.
The rocket science can be left to the scientists. Holding our nerve – and remembering why it matters – is the part the rest of us have to get right.