Last year was a turbulent year for the transport industry. The many ministerial changes meant policies were abandoned, recommitted and forgotten about almost at will. Throughout this year, the transport industry will hope for some stability in Westminster to offer the sector a chance for the long-term planning which has been lacking in the past year.
Strikes
An issue that will hopefully be resolved early on in 2023 are the national rail strikes currently being held by RMT and ASLEF members. The past few months of strikes have shown how important our rail network is for a functioning economy. Allowing this dispute to continue into the year will cause further havoc, both for rail workers who want to get back to work and customers who want to use the railway. We hope to see a resolution as soon as possible to get the backbone of the UK economy back up to full capacity.
Transport Bill
Recent comments from the Secretary of State, and written questions to the London Assembly, confirm that the Transport Bill will not pass in this parliamentary session (the fourth). The last time the Secretary of State mentioned the Bill, which will create Great British Railways (GBR), was in an oral evidence session with the Transport Select Committee on 7th December. In the hearing he stated that he could ‘not commit to fourth term legislative time for a Transport Bill’. He also did not suggest there would be a narrower Bill focusing on things such as e-mobility. From these comments, we can infer that we are more likely to see the Transport Bill in the next parliamentary session.
The consequence of delaying the Bill is that the establishment of GBR will be delayed. Recent events have shown the need for a central rail body to develop strategy. This will provide the supply chain with confidence to invest in the future. A delay to GBR’s creation will mean an extension to fragmented short term strategy. As the industry is aware that GBR is expected shortly, they will be reluctant to pursue anything other than business as usual in the meantime.
Cost of living crisis
Since the end of 2021 inflation has been increasing. The CPI inflation for November 2022 (latest figures) was 10.7%. This has led to a drastic fall in disposable income as wage increases have failed to match inflation. This creates problems for all modes of transport as, with wages effectively being lower, customers have less money to spend on fares, which are also rising. So our goal should be to make travelling as cost effective as possible. This is why campaigners are calling on industry and government to offset the economic harms of the crisis by making public transport more affordable.
For many on low incomes car use is not an option, so for medium to long term journeys public transport is the only viable alternative. Increased fares could be the difference between a student getting to university, an employee getting to work, or an unemployed person attending an interview. It’s encouraging to see government recognise the crisis with the recent cap on bus fares outside of London. As a policy this must be the beginning rather than the end. The scheme is a trial in place since the start of the year until 31st March. Any chance of its continuation will depend on passenger levels throughout the trial and income gained or lost by the operators. An increase in passenger numbers matched by an improved economic performance by the operators may lead to an extension of the trial.
The Secretary of State announced a 5.9% cap on rail fares for 2023 in December. This is 6.4 percentage points lower than July’s RPI figure which fare increases are historically linked to. This is a significant intervention but underwhelming if put into context. It's still a 6% hike to fares for a service which has recently experienced severe delays and cancellations. If you compare the fare hike to the recent cut in fuel duty, you can clearly see which modes the government have committed to incentivising.
Decarbonisation and Net Zero
A new year means another year closer to our Net Zero targets. While there are several interim targets for the different modes of transport, the main aim of a zero-emission system by 2050 remains the same. The transport sector has long been the biggest culprit for CO2 emissions, which is why the rate of progress in recent years is concerning. The International Environment Agency recorded an 8% increase in global transport CO2 emissions in 2021 following lockdown. The Tracking Clean Energy Progress report deemed the sector currently not on track.
The situation isn’t much better in the UK. The Department for Transport (DfT) recently blocked academics from viewing the emissions figures which formed the basis of the Transport Decarbonisation Plan (TDP). In the upcoming year we would like to see greater transparency which includes making accurate data available to all. The DfT appealed the Information Commissioner’s Office ruling that the figures in question were of public interest. So any hope of increased transparency currently looks unlikely.
We also need to make more progress with commitments made in the TDP and go one step further. The technological advancements the TDP relies on are crucial, but so is being honest about the need for behaviour change away from polluting modes. The same goes for a reduction in travel altogether. The Minister recently committed £32.9 million to create a network of experts to encourage Local Authorities to shift towards active travel. This is welcome, but all active travel funding in the past year looks insignificant compared to the £27 billion committed to the roads programme. Any honest attempt by the government to change our travel behaviours needs to address this imbalance in funding.
E-mobility
E-mobility remains one of the newest and most exciting forms of transport. But it’s clear the current legal situation surrounding e-scooters needs a change. Being able to legally buy e-scooters but unable to ride on roads where you can legally use e-scooters on trial is a complicated situation. The Transport Bill was expected to include legislation but with the delay there is no guarantee of seeing a change until the next parliamentary session. The end goal should be a simple and safe legislative and regulatory framework that is customer-focused and effective. Recent research we conducted with Voi, the UK’s leading shared e-scooter operator, showed how the right legislation and regulation is key to making sure e-scooters become an equitable transport mode. You can read more about it here.
Elsewhere we want to see the continued upwards trend of e-bike use. As with all new modes there are challenges to address, notably surrounding on-pavement parking. There is currently no universal legislation dictating how to park e-bikes, or e-scooters. This was another law expected in the Transport Bill. Different operators have different guidelines which mention the responsibility of the rider not to obstruct pavement users. Organisations like Living Streets call for specific docking bays or parking zones, placed to maximise space for all pavements users. Some operators have adopted this, others have not. The challenge is to keep the convenience of e-mobility while addressing the accessibility concerns around parking. Legislation with some guidance for operators, mandating parking zones and docking bays, must be a priority for this government. Regardless, the recent surge in e-bike use has inspired a new generation of cyclists while discouraging car use.
Conclusion: another long year of uncertainty?
It is possible for the Transport Bill to pass in 2023 as it could be introduced between October – December, but this is highly unlikely. It’s clear the industry needs the creation of GBR as soon as possible and delays to key legislation surrounding e-mobility are causing confusion and potential safety risks. The industry and the DfT will be eager to pass the Bill in this session, but as that remains unlikely both the government and industry may be disappointed with how the transport agenda progresses in 2023.
Aside from this, 2023 will depend on how industry and government can work together to tackle the more imminent problems: the strikes and the cost-of-living crisis. Whether the parties can reach an agreement quickly will be the deciding factor in whether we will face months more delays and cancellations which the industry can’t afford. As important is whether government can build on promising policies like the bus fare cap to keep the cost of travel affordable. If government addresses these problems, it can dedicate more time to passing key legislation like the Transport Bill. If not, we could be in for another long year of uncertainty over transport policy.