Rebecca Mason, associate, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
In a tale of two governments, one forms this week, while another looks to be unravelling.
MSPs will elect the next first minister on Tuesday, with cabinet and ministerial nominations happening on Wednesday. John Swinney is expected to be re-elected as leader of the SNP and, as the largest party in Holyrood, retain the first minister role.
However, Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton will be contesting the election, warning that treating the outcome as a foregone conclusion would be "an insult to democracy”.
One appointment to keep your eye on is the deputy first minister role. Mairi McAllan has been thought to be the frontrunner (£), but many believe and The Times is reporting that Swinney may be weighing up more experienced options, with Angela Constance and Shirley-Anne Somerville understood to be in contention. Former MPs, Stephen Flynn and Alison Thewliss, could find themselves in cabinet, while Calum Kerr and Kirsten Oswald are seen as contenders for ministerial roles.
Down in Westminster, Keir Starmer’s peg is getting shooglier. Nearly 100 MPs have now called for him to stand down, and a succession of senior cabinet ministers have privately urged him to set out a timeline for his departure (£).
Applications for Labour candidates in the Makerfield by-election close this week and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is expected to put himself forward.
Health secretary Wes Streeting said that Brexit was a mistake and called for Britain to one day rejoin the European Union (£). The move has incensed Burnham supporters who view the statement as an attempt to elevate the Brexit discussion in the leave voting Makerfield constituency.
There is no official contest yet, but we should expect more manoeuvres in the week ahead.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
The transformation of Edinburgh’s former Royal High School (£) main hall into a new concert venue and the future home of the National Centre for Music is now under way. Construction is expected to be completed by summer 2028, creating a major new cultural landmark for the city. The project is being funded largely through private philanthropy via the Dunard Fund, alongside public support including £4.5m from the National Lottery Heritage Fund and £3m from Edinburgh City Council’s visitor levy.
New statistics show that more than 40,000 people have been forced to wait in Scottish A&E departments for greater than 24 hours (£) since 2021 despite £220m in governments spending. Concerns over growing workforce shortages and increasing demand for an aging population are creating unsafe conditions for patients and healthcare workers, carrying major economic implications for Scotland’s public finances and labour market.
Think tank Intergenerational Foundation has called for the UK’s state pension triple lock to be scrapped, arguing it is now £10bn more expensive a year than forecast. Critics have warned that the policy could lead to higher taxes or force governments to increase the state pension age more quickly. The Foundation has called for pensions linked to inflation until 2030/31, and then by average of inflation and wage growth to save £19bn annually by 2035. Pensions are expected to rise by 4.8% in 2026 in line with earnings growth.
Scottish Golf reported a 16% rise in annual income to £3.7m (£), driven primarily by an increase in the per-player affiliation fee paid by club members. Membership also grew by 5.6%, including a notable 28% increase in junior boys, boosting overall participation and revenue. The organisation said the extra income has been reinvested into development work, staffing, and club support, including the creation of six regional development teams and expanded programmes for women and girls.
OpinioNation - columns of interest from the Scottish election
Reflecting on the opening week of the new Scottish parliamentary term, Rachel Amery argues that Kenny Gibson's surprise election as presiding officer reflects growing frustration (£) over overly scripted debates and parliamentary stagnation. She welcomes Gibson’s pledges to make the chamber livelier, cut stage-managed proceedings and strengthen scrutiny, hoping it marks the end of what Amery calls Holyrood's "era of dull."
Kathleen Nutt pushes back against critics of John Swinney's engagement plans with Sinn Féin (£) and aligns with his call to ‘move on’, drawing on her own experience of the Troubles. She argues that peace in Northern Ireland was only achieved because nationalists and unionists chose to work together through the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Reopening those fault lines now would put hard-won progress at risk, Nutt highlights, pointing instead to the continued efforts of contemporary Northern Irish political leaders to sustain reconciliation and shared government.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
Matthew Syed argues that Britain is becoming politically "unserious" at a dangerous moment (£) - one defined by global competition in AI, infrastructure, and industrial strategy. While countries like the US, China, and India are prioritising future-facing planning, Westminster obsesses over leadership challenges and short-term political drama. Once a nation leading in strategic thinking and industrial innovation, Syed blames a fragmented political system that is putting Britain at risk of falling behind and being “swallowed by triviality”.
CodeBase's James Trotman argues that Scottish start-ups already have the entrepreneurial talent and innovative ideas to compete globally, but many founders still face barriers when it comes to accessing AI infrastructure, specialist expertise, and venture capital investment (£). He points to CoreWeave's £1.5bn investment and new partnership with CodeBase as a significant vote of confidence in Scotland's AI ecosystem, highlighting this as a meaningful step towards removing those barriers to scale.
Nesrine Malik writes that the rise of Reform UK and the normalisation of anti-immigration rhetoric in British politics are creating a more hostile environment for ethnic minorities. She argues that language in the UK, as well as alleged racist and Islamophobic comments by Reform leaders, has become more mainstream since Brexit, with politicians and media increasingly legitimising prejudice under the banner of immigration debate. The real danger, Malik concludes, is not Westminster fighting, but the growing political influence of Reform UK.
Shifting the dial
Two years into Keir Starmer's premiership, public confidence in Labour has cratered, according to a new POLITICO poll by Public First. While 31% of respondents felt Labour had moved the country in the right direction, 56% said the party had either changed nothing since its 2024 election victory or actively made things worse.
Reform UK has cemented itself as a genuine political force, with 65% believing the party has a chance of winning power, and among English respondents, it now leads Labour on all major policy areas, including the economy, cost of living, immigration, and international affairs.
With internal pressures on Starmer mounting, the poll also offers little comfort for hopes that a leadership change might reset Labour's fortunes. 38% percent feel the party couldn’t recover in the immediate future, regardless of who is leading it.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
-
Westminster
- Debate: Continuation of the debate on the King’s Speech on backing business to create economic growth
- National Security Strategy (Joint Committee): Undersea cables: follow-up
- Environmental Audit Committee – Oral evidence: National security assessment and COP-17
- Applications for Labour candidates in the Makerfield by-election close at midday
- Andy Burnham will be speaking at the Great North Investment Summit
- BBC director general Matt Brittin’s first day in post
- UK business leaders travel to the US for UK trade mission
- Rightmove House Prince Index
- Cannes Film Festival begins
- EU: G7 ministers expected to host meeting in Paris
Tuesday
- Holyrood: First Minister vote expected
-
Scottish Government Data
- Labour Market Trends, May 2026
-
Westminster
- Oral questions: Justice (including Topical Questions)
- Debate: Continuation of the debate on the King’s Speech on energy security
- Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee – Oral evidence: Modernising Elections
- Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee – Oral evidence: Fairness in the food supply chain
- Treasury Committee – Oral evidence: The OBR – 15 years on
- Business and Trade Committee – Oral evidence: China and the UK economy
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee – Oral evidence: International climate policy
- 24-hour tube strike by London Underground staff
- EU: NATO Military Committee meets in Chiefs of Defence session in Brussels to discuss the Alliance’s deterrence and defence
- UK: May unemployment and labour market figures
- RHS Chelsea Flower Show begins
- International Booker Prize ceremony
Wednesday
- Holyrood: cabinet and ministerial nominations expected
-
Westminster
- Oral questions: Science, Innovation and Technology (including Topical Questions)
- Prime Minister’s Question Time
- Debate: Conclusion of the debate on the King’s Speech on defence readiness
- Energy Security and Net Zero Committee – Oral evidence: International climate policy
- Scottish Affairs Committee – Oral evidence: Connectivity in Scotland: Fixed links
- Science, Innovation and Technology Committee – Oral evidence: Pre-appointment hearing for the Chair of Ofcom
- Treasury Committee – Oral evidence: Bank of England Monetary Policy Reports
- UK: Inflation figures published
- Andy Burnham scheduled to speak at the UK Real Estate Investment and Infrastructure Forum Conference
- EU: NATO secretary general Mark Rutte to hold press conference
Thursday
-
Westminster
- Oral questions: Business and Trade (including Topical Questions)
- Business Statement: Business Questions to the Leader of the House
- Public Accounts Committee – Oral evidence: Unlocking land for housing
- Announcement on Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election expected
- UK: Immigration data published
- Nato foreign ministers meeting begins: Yvette Cooper expected to attend
Friday
- House of Commons enters recess. The House will next sit on 1 June
- UK: Government borrowing and public sector finance data
- UK: Monthly retail stats
- CBI Scotland lunch
Saturday
- Cannes Film Festival concludes
Sunday
- French Open 2026 begins with first-round matches in Paris