At 9PM on Monday night, Sir Graham Brady - chair of the 1922 Committee - rose to announce the results of the vote of confidence in Boris Johnson. The vote, which was triggered after at least 54 Conservative MPs handed in letters requesting a vote on the prime minister’s continued leadership, came after growing discontent over ‘partygate’ and its increasingly toxic fallout amongst the UK electorate.
The room was packed with the nervous energy palpable for all to see. While the PM was widely expected to win the vote, Johnson loyalists nonetheless held meaningful concerns about the number of their party colleagues who had lost their faith in his leadership. Meanwhile, media outlets were busy declaring that anything over 100 votes of no confidence would be a bad night for Johnson. Anything over 117 would be symbolically shambolic for the PM; eclipsing the number of no confidence votes received by his predecessor Theresa May in 2018.
In total, the PM received 211 votes in favour of his continued leadership. Importantly, however, 148 ballots were cast against him- meaning that 41% of his own MPs voted for him to be removed as party leader. This has been widely seen as a hugely damaging result for the PM, who less than three years ago led the Conservative party to its biggest electoral majority since the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher. The prime minister will be equally aware that the Iron Lady’s own premiership ended 8 days after a no confidence vote in which a lower proportion of her Conservative colleagues actually voted against her. A saving grace, perhaps, is that under the current rules Boris Johnson cannot be the subject of such a vote for at least another year now. That said, there are murmurs throughout Westminster that these rules could be changed if a requisite number of party rebels put in new letters of no confidence.
An evening of opposition
Naturally, the vote provided the ammunition the Labour Party needed to launch a full-fronted attack on their parliamentary counterparts. The leader of the opposition, Sir Keir Starmer, held a press conference shortly after the results were announced in which he furiously condemned the Conservative MPs expressing confidence in the PM for ignoring a ‘fed up’ British public. Starmer went on to declare that Boris Johnson was “utterly unfit” to hold the office of prime minister and that Conservatives believe “the British government have no right to expect honest politicians”. Of course, Durham police have yet to conclude their investigation in to the ‘beergate’ event attended by Sir Keir, setting a state of uncertainty over the future of both party leaders. Nonetheless, Starmer’s grin as he left parliament indicates that the outcome was certainly seen as a ‘win’ for Labour more broadly. To top off an evening of broad condemnation for the PM, the SNP’s Ian Blackford stated that Johnson is “a man who doesn’t have the support of this Parliament”. This sentiment was echoed by Labour MP Angela Eagle almost two days later, who said in PMQs on Wednesday afternoon that Johnson is “loathed” within his own party.
Tory infighting
Despite the apparent troubles, Johnson welcomed the ‘convincing’ confidence vote, declaring that he received a bigger backing from his MPs than he received in the Conservative leadership election of 2019. A number of his supporters have quoted a figure of 51% support in the 2019 run-off with Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove. However, not only was that a ballot of the members and not MPs, but Johnson also gained this percentage when facing two other opponents. Perhaps more importantly, Johnson wasn’t facing himself in the 2019 vote – a damning indictment of the situation in which he currently finds himself.
Johnson’s internal opponents were certainly quick to challenge his victory speech. Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire and leading ‘no confidence’ representative Andrew Bridgen promptly reiterated that the PM received worse results than the likes of Theresa May and Thatcher; both of whom saw a quick end to their premiership soon after their respective ‘wins’. Bridgen also took to social media to reference The Times written by former Conservative leader Lord Hague, in which he states that the PM has experienced a level of rejection that surpasses any of his predecessors. Also citing Lord Hague’s article was Tobias Ellwood, MP for Bournemouth East, who has been calling for Johnson’s resignation since February. Elwood declared that he accepts the results albeit “with huge caveats”, whilst Conservative Julian Sturdy (MP for York Outer) has advised that the PM should reconsider his position. When evaluating reactions from across the political landscape, whilst Johnson has won a short-term victory that he was broadly expected to achieve, it would be a very bold claim to credibly suggest that this closes the door on the saga.
On the plus side, Johnson still appears to have the confidence of his cabinet. Health secretary Sajid Javid said that the PM has “secured a fresh mandate” from the Conservatives, whilst culture secretary Nadine Dorries, foreign secretary Liz Truss and levelling up secretary Michael Gove said that it is time to get ‘on with the job’. Deputy prime minister Dominic Raab has added that Johnson has not been put off by the confidence vote, and is committing his energy to the government’s “packed agenda”.
What does the future hold for this Conservative government gripped by scandal?
If Boris Johnson can once again survive this turmoil, it will be something of a political miracle to many observers. Ahead of the vote on Wednesday, critical figures such as the PM’s own anti-corruption tsar, John Penrose, resigned after Johnson “failed to take responsibility” over lockdown parties. John Lamont MP, who was until Monday the parliamentary private secretary to Liz Truss, also announced his resignation ahead of the vote, describing the contents of the Sue Gray report as “sickening”. It seems unlikely that these will be the last ‘insiders’ to go, given the deep levels of unhappiness within the Conservative party. This is definitely a view that a large number of pundits have taken.
Whether this discontent will be allayed by rumours claiming the PM promised tax cuts to the 1922 Committee ahead of the vote, in a last ditch attempt to retain the support of some of his own MPs, is another question. Whilst this may be a smart idea from Johnson in principle, one can surely assume that it plays into the hands of the opposition parties. With the country battling a cost of living crisis due to inflationary pressures on the public’s finances, any potential ‘u-turn’ on tax could highlight that arguments the opposition has been carrying for months- that Johnson only cares about protecting his job. On Thursday morning, it was revealed that the PM looks set to attempt to woo dissident Conservative MPs with new housing policy pledges. Amongst these are expected to be an extension of ‘right to buy’ for those who rent from a housing association. Furthermore, he is also expected to suggest the possibility of allowing housing benefit to contribute towards the paying of a mortgage. In reality, whether this is too little too late to regain credibility within his own party remains to be seen.
Moreover, upcoming by-elections threaten to seriously undermine the PM’s moral authority. The latest polls show that Labour is on course for a landslide victory in the Wakefield by-election on Wednesday 23rd June; a vote triggered by the resignation of then-Conservative MP Imrad Ahmad Khan after he was found to have sexually assaulted a 15-year-old boy in 2008. In addition, the Tiverton by-election will be held on the same day, after former MP Neil Parish resigned due to his admission of guilt over watching pornography on his mobile phone in the House of Commons chamber. When analysing this alongside the current saga occurring in Westminster, a Conservative party gripped by scandal looks set lose crucial seats due to a culture of misconduct, not just political wrongdoing. Consequently, it appears that the future of this Conservative government rests almost entirely on its own conduct, despite serious current issues with inflation and the economy.
As the UK government look to move on from “partygate” and the vote of confidence in the prime minister, the upcoming by-elections could strike serious blows to the PM’s authority. If they’ve not already taken place by June 23rd, a poor showing for the Conservatives in Tiverton and Wakefield could well lead to further high-profile resignations in the Conservative government. Having narrowly survived a vote from his own colleagues, it could well be these elections that place the final nail in the coffin for Johnson and his ailing leadership.