John Cumming, senior client manager, looks at the top stories for the week ahead.
With less than three weeks to go until the Scottish Parliament election, the last thing that Anas Sarwar would have wanted is fresh controversy over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. While Sarwar’s decision to call for the prime minister to resign back in February might give him a degree of cover, the UK media’s preoccupation with this issue over the coming days won’t exactly help the Scottish Labour leader, who is understood not to have met with Starmer during the latter’s brief visit to Scotland at the weekend.
Electioneering continues around the country this week, with John Swinney visiting Shetland today to campaign alongside the SNP’s candidate there, Hannah Mary Goodlad. This will be the first minister’s third visit to the archipelago during this campaign, suggesting the party believes it has a genuine chance of winning the seat from the Lib Dems. Malcolm Offord is at the opposite end of the country campaigning for Reform UK in Stranraer today, while Sarwar is at the STUC conference in Dundee, Ross Greer is in Stirling for the Greens, Alex Cole-Hamilton visits Fife with the Lib Dems, and Russell Findlay is in Edinburgh.
In brief - Scotland's economy and business
- A Daily Business piece, published this morning, highlights new economic forecasting from the EY Item Club which says UK GDP growth will fall from 1.4% last year to 0.7% in 2026, and reach only 0.9% next year. Analysis suggests this could see the UK come close to entering technical recession, with the country’s economic outlook under threat as a result of ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- In a report for The Herald, Kristy Dorsey highlights the uncertainty facing Scotland’s golf industry. Ongoing challenges related to global tensions – including potential fuel shortages – could disrupt tourism and events, while rising costs are also discouraging domestic golfers. While venues and businesses are investing to stay competitive, Dorsey says there’s a risk that rising costs may price Scotland out of the market.
- In The Times, Greig Cameron, David Leask and Marieta Marinova consider claims of vast untapped North Sea oil, noting that Britain has been a net importer since 2004. While remaining resources could bring investment and jobs, Cameron concludes that they cannot deliver long-term energy independence. The piece also includes contributions from industry experts, stressing the need for a continued focus on growing renewable capacity to ensure the UK becomes less energy dependent.
OpinioNation - columns of interest
- Writing for The Scotsman, Euan McColm argues for a cross-party truce when it comes to debating the future of the NHS, with an honest discussion on funding that considers solutions which may appear politically unpopular. With rising demand and an ageing population, McColm believes that only genuine collaboration can deliver meaningful, lasting improvements.
- Scottish Labour MP Graeme Downie published an article over the weekend, arguing that while the UK must increase defence spending, framing fiscal choices as welfare versus defence is counterproductive, with significant benefit cuts risking weakening our society and the economy. He also argues that such a move would disproportionately impact younger people and, instead, calls for sacrifices to be made elsewhere, including reform of the pensions triple lock.
- The FT’s associate editor and global business columnist, Rana Foroohar, has argued that Europe should align with the United States rather than China despite tensions under Donald Trump. Given the threat which China poses to Western economies, Foroohar calls for a renewed transatlantic partnership to strengthen resilience, with both parties treated as equals.
Shifting the dial - recent research
A new University of Glasgow study, commissioned by First Bus, has found that traffic congestion in Glasgow is wasting 1.2 million hours of passengers’ time each year.
The research found that Pollokshaws Road was Glasgow’s worst road for congestion, with around 375,577 passenger hours lost every year, and the economic impact valued at £7.45 million.
The report calls for targeted interventions such as bus lanes, bus gates, and traffic signal priority which have made a difference in other cities. In Aberdeen, bus punctuality has improved by 12% and journey times have been reduced by 17% since the introduction of bus gates in 2023.
The week ahead - fill your diary with key events
Monday
-
Westminster:
- Prime minister Keir Starmer to deliver a statement in the Commons amid renewed controversy over the vetting of Peter Mandelson prior to his appointment as US ambassador.
- Taipei’s representative in the UK, Vincent Chin-Hsiang Yao, to address the Joint Committee on National Security Strategy.
- Holyrood election: first minister John Swinney to campaign in Shetland.
Tuesday
-
Westminster:
- Former Foreign Office permanent secretary, Olly Robbins, to appear before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
- MPs on the Education Committee to hear from representatives of TikTok, Meta and Snapchat, discussing screentime and social media use among young people.
Wednesday
-
Westminster:
- PMQs.
- Chair of GB Energy – Nuclear, Simon Bowen, to appear before the ESNZ committee.
- Leszek Borysiewicz, the incoming chair of the UK’s research and innovation body, UKRI, to attend her pre-appointment hearing with the science committee.
- President of the Supreme Court, Robert Reed, to appear before the Constitution Committee.
- MPs on the trade subcommittee to hear from critical minerals experts.
- Iran: expiration of the two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran.
- Economy: UK inflation data to be published.
Thursday
-
Westminster:
- Cabinet Office ministers to take questions from MPs in the chamber.
- England: St George’s Day.
Friday
-
Westminster
- Peers to debate the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill.
Saturday
- US: President Trump to attend the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner.
- Archbishop of Canterbury begins her four-day visit to Rome, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.
- Palestine: local elections held for municipalities and village councils.
Sunday
- London Marathon.