Nicola Sturgeon ‘the politician’ means many things to many people, but there are certain common denominators. Statesmanlike? Yes. Determined? Definitely. Impulsive? Far less so.
Remarking to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg in January that there was “plenty in the tank” as she entered her ninth year of leadership, it was generally accepted that Nicola Sturgeon would be the leader to see the SNP through the next General Election at least.
For that reason, the timing of her resignation announcement came as a major shock. However, the substance is probably less shocking.
Saying on Wednesday that she now wishes to focus on Nicola Sturgeon ‘the person’, intuition suggests that, first and foremost, Sturgeon’s decision is personal. She will have reflected on what will have been a draining term as Scotland’s longest serving First Minister, and applied her legal background to carefully consider her position - coming to the conclusion that the logical time to go is now.
Far from other recent resignation announcements, the overall climate surrounding Sturgeon’s resignation is not one of crisis. However, that is not to say that storm clouds aren’t gathering around the SNP and its leadership.
Scottish independence, the SNP’s founding objective, has reached a nexus point. Major decisions on strategy need to be taken, and yet it is understood that Ms Sturgeon had concerns about her ability to persuade a majority within the party of her preferred strategy of using the next UK General Election as a “de facto referendum”.
This stasis has been compounded by mounting pressures in the domestic policy space which are leading to an unprecedented degree of turmoil, not seen since the SNP’s ascent to power 16 years ago.
The Gender Recognition Reform Bill has been the most controversial and divisive policy of the Sturgeon government, and the cases of transgender prisoners which followed it have added to the significant pressure, internally and externally, to change course.
Furthermore, CalMac ferries, strikes, NHS performance, the deposit return scheme, and a swathe of other domestic policy decisions have all taken on a new dimension as opponents of them have smelled blood.
Also in the mix is the SNP government’s Cooperation Agreement with the Scottish Greens, which many see as having played a key role in many of the policies which have proved the most intractable.
So what’s next?
If Nicola Sturgeon can’t convince her party of the most appropriate independence strategy, it’s uncertain who can. The potential successors who are tipped to throw their hats into the ring will, without doubt, put this issue at the heart of their campaigns - not least because those domestic policy matters will continue to be awkward, and divisive, for the party.
The two names which normally top the list are those of Angus Robertson and Kate Forbes, but both carry internal baggage which complicates matters.
So, much like the approach towards independence, speculation about a successor - the next First Minister of Scotland - remains fairly broad, and split along party loyalties.
The outcome of that, at least, we will know when the contest concludes on 27 March.
Clare Slipper is a Senior Associate at Message Matters