The SNP leadership contest is underway: underway in a truncated form. The SNP’s NEC has rewritten the rules. No longer a three or four month contest, now it is little more than four weeks.
So little time for reflection, and a meaningful dialogue on what next.
Those of us who have been around for a while will remember Jim Sillars slogan, “Free in 93”. Thirty years on “Freedom” is no closer than it was following the 2014 Referendum. Indeed the average support for independence in the last five polls is 40%.
The problem for the leadership candidates is this. The Independence project has been derailed by failures in policy, delivery and governance. And the First Minister has chosen to exit prior to more chickens coming home to roost.
Just as Penny Mordaunt is not PM because of her initial stance on the gender issue, so the Gender Recognition Reform Bill was one trigger for the First Minister to announce her decision to stand down. But, make no mistake; she is going because her attempts to keep the possibility of an early referendum alive have run out of road. Not only because of the UK Supreme Court judgement, but also because of her suggestion that a Westminster or Holyrood general election should be seen as an independence referendum. Not a popular policy with the SNP Westminster group, and a policy which saw off Ian Blackford.
Since 2014, the collective SNP eye has been off the ball. Ferries, the attainment gap, soaring drug deaths, the deposit return scheme and the absence of a credible and sustained economic strategy, the list of failures grows almost weekly.
Before the SNP can seriously get the independence show back on the road it not only needs to put outstanding issues to bed, but it needs to demonstrate that it is capable of doing the job it was elected to do and achieve better outcomes for education, social care, transport and the Scottish economy.
Not a job that many would want. The absence of senior and experienced MSP’s declaring their interest in the job is telling. They know that whoever becomes FM will be expected to take responsibility for past failures. It is as almost as if someone is being set up for a fall.
Scottish politics is changing. A YouGov Westminster poll, taken prior to the First Minister’s decision to stand down, found that Labour were only two points behind the SNP. Scots see Keir Starmer, unlike his predecessor, as a credible candidate for Prime Minister, and Scottish Labour and are now selecting quality candidates, such as Douglas Alexander in East Lothian.
Had the First Minister indicated her decision to resign in May the SNP would have had time for a serious debate over the summer months. By failing to do so the party’s next opportunity to reassess their progress may well come in opposition.
Keith Geddes, Policy Director, Pagoda PR